Uwe Lohmann

Dooms day Dollar Scenario

For decades, global savers, and American retirement savers in particular, have been taught that you should put most of your money in an S&P Index fund – one that tracked the fortunes of the biggest US organizations – and then forget about it until you were close to retirement. Since the mid-1980s onwards, that has been more or less good guidance. American multinationals were, after all, the finest way to buy into globalization, and globalization was very good for the stock prices of many large companies.

But what would it mean if the whole paradigm for long-term investing was to modify?

America’s place in the Earth has changed, thus has the developmental capabilities of its enterprises. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point we might be in for a correction not simply in the stock prices of US multinationals, but in the dollar itself. That would have significant ramifications for speculators all over the place – from individual savers in the US to giant pension funds in Europe and Asia. Likewise, in spite of certain nations like China and Russia moving out of dollar – designated resources for reasons both political and financial, the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. As indicated by calculations, which track cash developments from the mid-1970s onwards, we started another cycle in January 2017, and in spite of the dollar’s strength since April 2018, the cycle is still intact. On the off chance that the theory holds, the dollar is ready to fall against the euro and yen in coming years, and by as much as 50 to 60%.

We are currently over 10 years into a time of super-low interest rates. The Fed’s choice to keep capital cheap- and most presumably later on considerably less expensive and ample, seemed well and good after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. It permitted organizations and shoppers to get the cash they expected to fire up the economy after the recession choked the capital markets.